Five days in May

Mar 12, 2010 — Washington Post

Chris Cillizza

Five days in May -- from the 18th to the 22nd -- will tell us much about just how bad the political environment is, and will be, for House Democrats this fall.

On May 18, voters in southwestern Pennsylvania will pick a replacement for the late Rep. John Murtha in a special election. Businessman Tim Burns (R) and former Murtha district director Mark Critz (D) will carry their respective party banners in the 12th district special election.

Four days later, a second special election will be held -- this one in Hawaii's 1st district. Two Democrats -- state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa and former Rep. Ed Case -- as well as Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R) will face off in a winner-take-all race.

For Republicans to build genuine momentum -- and perk up what, to date, has been surprisingly sluggish fundraising -- it would help immensely to win one of these two races.

House Democrats are currently on an amazing five-race winning streak in contested special election that dates back all the way to 2008 and it's hard for Republicans to make the case that the majority is in play if they can't take advantage of the favorable political climate to steal a race in the runup to the midterms. (If Republicans swing and miss at these two races, they're likely to have a third chance in a special election for former New York Rep. Eric Massa's 29th district although Gov. David Paterson has yet to set a special election date.)

On paper, Pennsylvania's 12th looks like the better of the two options for Republicans as it was the only district in the country to vote for Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004 and then support Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2008.

But, Democrats have a major registration edge in the district and the timing of the special to coincide with primaries across the state likely gives Critz a leg up since Democrats are playing host to very competitive primaries for governor and Senate while Republicans have little going on statewide to help drive turnout for Burns.

Hawaii, however, is shaping up to be a major headache for Democrats for two reasons. First, Case and Hanabusa seem to be moving toward an all-out assault on one another with the likely result being a fractured Democratic party vote. Second, the winner-take-all nature of the special elections means that that sort of splintering of votes between two well-known commodities in the Democratic party could make Djou a winner if he can simply consolidate Republican votes and peel away a few Democratic-leaning independents. (All of the candidates run on a single ballot.)

A loss in a district as Democratic as Hawaii -- it is, in fact, President Obama's home district -- would have an effect on Democratic elected officials similar to that of Sen. Scott Brown's (R) victory in Massachusetts in January. That is to say, panic.

Below you'll find our rankings of the 20 House races most likely to switch parties in the November election. As always, the number one ranked race is considered the most vulnerable to a party turnover.

To the Line!

Coming off the Line: Arkansas' 1st, Alabama's 2nd, Idaho's 1st, Washington's 3rd.

Coming onto the Line: Hawaii's 1st, New York's 29th, Pennsylvania's 15th, Virginia's 2nd.

20. Pennsylvania's 15th (Republican-controlled): In an election without much good news, Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan is a Democratic bright spot. Democratic strategists are convinced that he will be coming to Congress based on his candidate skills, internal polling and the fact that Rep. Charlie Dent (R) hasn't had a serious race since coming to Congress in 2004. It may not be that easy. This is former Rep. Pat Toomey's (R) old congressional seat and he'll need a big turnout in it this fall if he hopes to win the Senate race. (Previous ranking: N/A)

19. Virginia's 2nd district (D): Rep. Glenn Nye (D) was swept into office in 2008 thanks to a surge in African American turnout in this Virginia Beach-based district where one in every five resident is black. Without President Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, it's harder to see how Nye gets to the magic 50 percent marker. Auto dealer Scott Rigell (R) faces a primary but with $500,000 in the bank he should be able to navigate those waters for a chance at Nye in the general. (Previous ranking: N/A)

18. Pennsylvania's 7th district (Democratic controlled): Republicans remain ecstatic about former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan's candidacy although at a recent candidate meet and greet in Washington we were less impressed with him than expected. One thing Meehan clearly does well is raise money; he ended 2009 with $694,000 in the bank. Democrats have rallied behind state Rep. Bryan Lentz who was recently named to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue" list. (Previous ranking: 20)

17. Hawaii's 1st (D): As we mentioned above, this special election spells trouble with a capital "T" for Democrats. The infighting between Hanbusa and Case coupled with Djou's credible candidacy is a problem waiting to happen for the majority party. (Previous ranking: N/A)

16. Florida's 8th district (D): Rep. Alan Grayson is probably too liberal for this central Florida seat and his strident public pronouncements (and love of the spotlight) don't do him any favors electorally. But, Grayson's high profile has helped him raise scads of cash -- $861,000 in the final three months of 2009 alone -- and preferred Republican nominee Bruce O'Donoghue faces a late (August 24) primary fight. (Previous ranking: 15)

15. Ohio's 15th district (D): Two years ago, national Republicans believed that state Sen. Steve Stivers was their best candidate in the country. But, he lost by 2,000 (or so) votes to Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D). Stivers is back again and without presidential year turnout at THE Ohio State University, Kilroy may struggle to preserve her winning margin from 2008. (Previous ranking: 18)

14. Ohio's 1st (D): After repeated attempts to beat Rep. Steve Chabot (R), Democrats finally made it over the top in 2008 thanks to a turnout surge among the large chunk of African-American voters living in Cincinnati. But, with black turnout expected to return to normal levels (or below) in the midterms, Chabot is back and Rep. Steve Driehaus (D) is rightly concerned. (Previous ranking: 16)

13. Tennessee's 8th (D): On paper, this is a very tough open seat hold for Democrats as President Obama took just 43 percent of the vote in the 8th in 2008. But, following the retirement of Rep. John Tanner (D), Democrats quickly rallied around state Sen. Roy Herron as their nominee. National Republicans -- led by California Rep. Kevin McCarthy -- have touted the candidacy of farmer Stephen Fincher but he faces a primary and is an unproven commodity on the campaign trail. Still, the demographics of this seat are tough for Democrats and it's shaping up to be a very good year for Republicans in the Volunteer State. (Previous ranking: 14)

12. Virginia's 5th district (D): Much of Rep. Tom Perriello's (D) political fate is tied up with the identity of the eventual Republican nominee. If state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) can navigate his way through the June 8 primary, Perriello is in deep trouble. If, however, someone like businessman Laurence Verga, a conservative who identifies closely with the tea Party movement, pulls an upset then Perriello is very much in the game in this Southside district that includes the University of Virginia. (Previous ranking: 12)

11. Mississippi's 1st district: At the start of the 2010 election cycle, we ranked this seat and Alabama's 2nd district side by side. Both southern seats tilt heavily toward Republicans but were won by conservative Democrats able to distance themselves from the national party. Alabama's 2nd is no longer on the Line as Rep. Bobby Bright (D) continues to prove his staying power. But, Rep. Travis Childers (D) is among the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in the country for two reasons: 1) State Sen. Alan Nunnelee appears to be the real deal and 2) Childers raised an eye-poppingly bad $110,000 in the final three months of last year. (Previous ranking: 11)

10. New Mexico's 2nd district (D): The dynamic of this race has long been set. Former Rep. Steve Pearce (R), who held this southern New Mexico seat from 2002 to 2008, will cast Rep. Harry Teague (D) as out of step with the district due to his vote in favor of the cap and trade bill. Teague will argue he is an independent voice for New Mexico. Both men have considerable personal wealth to bring to bear on the race. (Previous ranking: 8)

9. New York's 29th district (D): Assuming Paterson calls a special election to replace Massa, this southern tier district is a major problem for Democrats. Republicans seem to be lining up behind Corning Mayor Tom Reed for the special, a move that should immediately bolster Reed's somewhat lackluster fundraising to date. (Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks remains in the mix on the Republican side too, and is regarded by many as a potentially strong candidate.) The Democratic field has yet to take shape as elected officials and party leaders try to take stock of the damage Massa has done. This is a Republican-tilting district under ordinary circumstances -- McCain carried it with 51 percent -- and these are no ordinary circumstances. (Previous ranking: N/A)

8. Illinois' 10th district (R): Both parties got their preferred candidate in the state's Feb. 2 primary. Dan Seals (D), who has run and lost two races for the seat, narrowly defeated a state legislator while businessman Bob Dold (R) cruised to a more pedestrian victory. By the numbers, this affluent North Shore seat favors Democrats as President Obama carried it with 61 percent in 2008. (Previous ranking: 7)

7. Maryland's 1st district (D): One of many rematches on the docket this fall, the race for this Eastern Shore district pits freshman Rep. Frank Kratovil (D) against state Sen. Andy Harris (R). While Harris is probably a tick or two too conservative for the seat, the raw numbers in the district -- Obama won just 40 percent here in 2008 -- look to be determinative. (Previous ranking: 6)

6. Arkansas' 2nd district (D): Former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin (R) is running strong -- he was in the race prior to Rep. Vic Snyder's (D) retirement -- and Democrats are headed for a crowded primary fight. No matter who emerges, the demographics of this district are tough for the party; President Obama won 44 percent in the Little Rock-area seat in 2008. (Previous ranking: 9)

5. Louisiana's 3rd district (D): Races start notoriously late in Louisiana and this contest to replace Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) who is running for Senate is no exception. For months, political observers have been waiting for two people to make up their minds on the race: former state House Speaker Hunt Downer and Jindal Administration official Scott Angelle. Conventional wisdom is that Downer will run for the Republican nod and Angelle, a Democrat, will stay out of the race entirely. If Downer runs, he likely wins in this southeastern Louisiana seat. (Previous ranking: 4)

4. Kansas' 3rd district (D): Democrats have watched all of their top tier nominees take a pass on the chance to replace retiring Rep. Dennis Moore (D). The latest potential candidate -- floated by Moore himself -- is his wife, Stephene. But, it's hard to gauge how serious she is and whether, if she ran, she would be a quality candidate. Republicans have a contested August primary featuring several elected officials but the national party has to feel good about its prospects in this seat. (Previous ranking: 5)

3. Delaware's at-large district (R): Former Lt. Gov. John Carney (D) is a solid favorite to win the open seat race created by Rep. Mike Castle's (R) decision to run for Senate. But, Republicans see a glimmer of hope in the potential candidacy of businesswoman Michele Rollins. Rollins, who has considerable personal wealth, would be a credible challenger in a seat where Republicans appeared dead in the water just a few weeks ago. (Previous ranking: 2)

2. Louisiana's 2nd district (R): President Obama won 75 percent of the vote in Rep. Joseph Cao's New Orleans-area district in 2008. No matter who Democrats nominate, it appears as though the future isn't Cao. (Previous ranking: 3)

1. Tennesee's 6th district (D): The only drama in this middle Tennessee open seat is who wins the Republican primary. (Previous ranking: 1)