Senate Democrats claim momentum in four states

Jul 29, 2010 — Washington Post

Chris Cillizza

1. Senate Democrats will argue today that their electoral prospects have improved in four states -- Kentucky, Louisiana, Illinois and Nevada -- over recent weeks, developments that will limit their losses in the fall.

"Despite the headwinds of history, Democratic Senate candidates in these states -- two of which would be pick-up opportunities -- have becoming increasingly competitive," writes Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee executive director J.B. Poersch in a memo set to be distributed today.

Democrats' strongest argument is in Nevada where the struggles of former state Assemblywoman Sharron Angle since her Republican primary victory on June 8 have coincided with a drop in her standing in a head to head matchup with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D).

A recent Las Vegas Review Journal poll showed Reid with a seven-point edge -- a margin unthinkable even a few weeks ago.

In Illinois, too, Democratic prospects have improved thanks to the foibles of the Republican nominee. Rep. Mark Kirk has been beset by questions about his resume following revelations that he has misstated elements of his past military service. Poersch writes that Kirk is in "freefall" -- perhaps something of an overstatement although even Republicans acknowledge a race that was once theirs to lose has faded back to toss up status.

(Worth noting in Illinois: State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, the Democratic nominee, has plenty of his own baggage, including the recent failure of his family bank; Kirk also outraised him in the second quarter by $1.4 million.)

Louisiana and Kentucky represent genuine Democratic pickup chances, argues Poersch thanks in large part to the fact that Sen. David Vitter (La.) and ophthalmologist Rand Paul are flawed candidates. Poersch derided Vitter's "scandal-ridden campaign" (an aide to the Senator was let go after revelations that he had attacked a former girlfriend) and described Paul as a "fringe candidate".

Both states are, however, tough sledding demographically for Democrats. President Barack Obama won just 40 percent in Louisiana and 41 percent in Kentucky in the 2008 race.

Regarded broadly, the point Poersch aims to make in the memo is that while the national environment is not a beneficial one for Democrats and while history suggests losses are coming their way, candidates and the campaigns they run matter. "These midterm elections will be a contrast between the two Senate candidates on each ballot," he concludes.

Most neutral political handicappers -- from Charlie Cook to Stu Rothenberg -- now see Senate Democrats headed for losses between five and eight seats this fall.

2. President Barack Obama has added Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate Tom Barrett (D) to his August fundraising tour.

Obama will go to Milwaukee on Aug. 16 to highlight economic efforts and raise money for Barrett, the mayor of the Cream City, the lone major candidate for governor on the Democratic side. The following day, President Obama will head to Washington for the same dual purpose, benefiting Murray.

Barrett was a top White House recruit in the race to replace retiring Gov. Jim Doyle (D). He will face the winner of the GOP primary between Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and former Rep. Mark Neumann where Walker is favored.

Obama's visit to Washington happens to fall on primary day, when Murray and another candidate former state Sen. Dino Rossi (R) are likely to win berths in the general election.

Rossi's entry into the race catapulted Murray into the ranks of vulnerable incumbents. It should be noted that Washington, more than a lot of other states, remains rather fond of the president a year and half after he was inaugurated.

3. New Hampshire state Attorney General and Republican frontrunner Kelly Ayotte has seen her lead over Rep. Paul Hodes (D) shrink since April although she remains ahead by eight points, according to a new University of New Hampshire poll.

Ayotte leads Hodes 45 percent to 37 percent among likely voters in a general election match-up -- a slimmer margin than the 15-point edge she held in April.

Democrats immediately seized on the numbers to prove that Ayotte, who faces two wealthy businessmen and 1996 gubernatorial nominee Ovide LaMontagne in a Sept. 14 primary, is struggling in the wake of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's endorsement of her campaign.

The best evidence? Ayotte's unfavorability rating has more than doubled from 13 percent to 27 percent over the past three months. That said, her standing is still stronger than that of Hodes who has a 32 percent favorable/31 unfavorable score.

The UNH poll did not release any Republican primary numbers although Ayotte is considered a clear favorite. Both Jim Bender and Bill Binnie are spending heavily from their own bank accounts while LaMontagne is trying to appeal directly to conservative voters.

The seat is open because Sen. Judd Gregg (R) is not seeking re-election.

4. Two weeks after his campaign manager's abrupt departure, billionaire real estate developer Jeff Greene is making more staffing changes in his bid for the Democratic Senate nomination in Florida.

Greene, who is battling Rep. Kendrick Meek in the Aug. 24 primary, has added media consultants Tad Devine and Julian Mulvey to his team. (Greene's camp confirmed that current media consultant Joe Trippi will be staying on with the campaign.)

The firm has worked with on Boston Celtics co-owner Stephen Pagliuca's (D) unsuccessful bid in the Massachusetts Senate special election as well as former Rep. Ed Case's (D) losing run in Hawaii's 1st district special election in May. They've also been working on Massachusetts Treasurer Tim Cahill's independent bid for governor.

Meanwhile, the already nasty fight took another interesting turn when Meek said in a conference call with reporters that he's not sure whether he'd support Greene as the Democratic nominee.

"I don't like to live in the world of hypotheticals and I really, I'm not even prepared to answer that question," Meek said, adding: " I do see Mr. Greene as a Republican versus a Democrat." Greene, who ran for Congress as a Republican in California in the early 1980s, said earlier this month that he would back Meek as the nominee.

Greene's camp accused Meek of applying a double standard. "It's hypocritical of Kendrick Meek to say he's the 'Real Democrat' when he won't even commit to supporting the Democratic nominee for US Senate," Greene spokesperson Luiz Vizcaino said.

Both candidate are bashing one another on TV. Meek went up with his first ad this week, while Greene is hitting back with an ad of his own charging that Meek is corrupt.

5. Self-funding businessman Rick Snyder (R) has spent about twice as much as his nearest competitor this year in the Michigan governor's race, as he and three other candidates battle it out in advance of the primary next Tuesday.

Snyder, a former executive at Gateway computers, has spent $4.6 million between Jan. 1 and July 18, compared to $2.4 million for state Attorney General Mike Cox and $1 million for Rep. Pete Hoekstra. That trio is neck and neck in polling while Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, who spent $813,000 during the same time period, isn't far behind.

On the Democratic side, state House Speaker Andy Dillon is outraising and outspending Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero by a two-to-one margin. Dillon raised $1.4 million this year compared to Bernero's $743,000.

Pre-primary reports in other Aug. 3 primary states -- Missouri and Kansas -- provided few surprises.

In Missouri, Rep. Roy Blunt's (R) Senate campaign has also spent heavily in advance of the primary -- although the vast majority of that cash went into television ads bashing Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D), Blunt's likely general election opponent. All told, Blunt spent $572,000 in the first two weeks of July.

Thanks to Blunt's spending, Carnahan, who is not yet on television, cut the cash gap in half since the start of the month. She now trails Blunt just $4 million to $3.6 million in available cash.

In the Kansas GOP Senate primary, Rep. Jerry Moran has spent twice as much as Rep. Todd Tiahrt during the campaign -- $4.5 million to $2.2 million. Tiahrt has slightly more cash left, $889,000 to $795,000 for the final push, however. Whoever wins the primary will be a heavy favorite in November.

With Aaron Blake and Felicia Sonmez